First of the split rounds this week. The two games of real uncertainty are the Collingwood v GWS match up at the MCG and St Kilda v Melbourne at Docklands. Collingwood are sitting in the top four with 7 wins, all against the bottom 7 teams on the ladder. By contrast, GWS have beaten two top 8 sides, both at home out at Spotless. However, it is an away game for the Giants and this evens things up. Don’t surprised to see the team of top 10 draft picks roll the Pies though, and for that reason I’ve selected the Giants.. The other uncertain game is the scrubber showdown, the Saints v the Dees. It’s heaven versus hell and by hell it’s hard to pick a result. I’m going with the Saints simply because they’ve got St. Nick up forward and the Dees, well they’ve got Bernie who is a naughty little boy. Carn the Sainters (first time I’ve tipped them this year).

My own tips surpassed all the systems this week. They all missed the FRE/RIC and the NTH/WCE upsets and chose Essendon solely on ladder position and similar with the Western Bulldogs.

Results Round 10

Current Leaderboard (Round 10)

Carn the crowies! 🙂

I was quite right calling the COL/KAN and BRI/STK games as close and having the potential to go either way. Of course they went AGAINST the way I expected. All the systems outdid me this week, hasn’t happened much this year.

Results Round 9

Current Leaderboard (Round 9)

There’s some interesting matches this week according to the systems. They show the biggest predicted margin so far this season (SYD v CAR) and the smallest predicted margin (RIC v ESS). In fact, the RIC v ESS game has a zero margin in 2 of the systems. I think Richmond are the likely winners of the game, they’ve beaten better sides in the last few weeks than the Bombers. Personally I think the BRS v STK and COL v NM are close games too. Collingwood still hasn’t beaten a side of note and their ladder position is deceptive, I think the Roos have their measure. The Lions and St. Kilda are both rubbish and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Saints get the lollies up in BrisVegas.

Well, my two 50/50 tips went against me this week (damn you GWS and Sydney). All of the systems managed to beat my own tips, which is what happens when you tip on gut feel rather than logic. Did I already say damn you GWS and Sydney?

Results Round 9

Current Leaderboard (Round 9)

I found it tough tipping this week with 2 very doubtful games and 2 more that could easily end in upsets. I’ve tipped Adelaide over GWS despite Adelaide’s long injury list, and GWS playing at home. GWS have never looked like beating Adelaide and I can’t see a 10 goal turn around from the last time they played at Metricon. I’ve also backed in Hawthorn against the Swans, they’ve got three great players coming in, the game is in Melbourne, and the Swans didn’t convince me last week against the Cats despite coming home with a wet sail in the final quarter. Don’t be surprised to see an upset in the ESS/BRI or the POR/RIC games either.

One real upset this round (Port failing against the Lions), and a 50/50 game that went against all the systems and my own tips (damn you Richmond). My own tipping is leading all the systems comfortably now.

Results Round 7

Current Leaderboard (Round 7)

An interesting round of tipping this week. On the surface there’s a few obvious games but closer examination suggests 3 games this round could go either way. ESS v NM, CAR v GWS, RIC v COL are all up in the air. At first glance NM, GWS, and COL seem like simple picks. However, NM has only beaten quality opposition once (GEEL in Geelong), GWS has had one good win (last week v HAW) but other than that hasn’t beaten anyone of quality, and COL and RIC are both diabolical. COL has had a few wins but last week showed their real colours when they came up against a decent team (GEEL) that pantsed them. That all being said I can’t bring myself to tip Carlton or Richmond at all because they are rubbish. And Essendon is surely due for a massive down game after WADA announced the appeal to the 2012 Essendon doping program earlier in the week.