Another fun round of upsets. GWS getting up over Hawthorn is one of the biggest upsets of recent times. Brisbane doing the deed on Carlton helps emphasise how truly crap the Blues really are. I’ll have to think long and hard before tipping them again this year.

Results Round 6

Current Leaderboard (Round 6)

Again this week I think we’re seeing the weakness of systems that use ladder position and do not weight for the quality of teams played. Late in the season this will not matter so much but in early rounds the weakness will be apparent. I do not believe a sane tipper would have selected GWS against West Coast in Perth, a couple of the systems did. Similarly, choosing Richmond over Geelong was not (in my opinion) a sensible pick. My own tips are leading all the systems by a considerable margin now.

Results Round 5

Current Leaderboard (Round 5)

Last week was a tough tipping week and this round is no different. I think this week shows some of the flaws in an automated tipping system that doesn’t include some sort of power rating that examines the quality of teams defeated as well as comparing relative ladder position. For example, the Adelaide v Pt Adelaide match sees all four systems selecting the Crows but I’ve chosen the Power. They’ve beaten two quality sides in the last two rounds, sides that played very well. Adelaide lost badly last week, and their three previous wins have been either unconvincing or against a side (North Melbourne) that was diabolical. All four systems are suggesting that the GWS/Eagles and Gold Coast/Lions games will be close ones. Personally I think the West Coast will win easily while the battle of the cellar dwellars could go either way.

A poor tipping week for many this week, with 5 or 6 the most a tipper with any real logic could get. My own tips are now doing considerably better than any of the systems.

Results Round 4

Current Leaderboard (Round 4)

An interesting week this week with several 50/50 games. St Kilda vs Carlton in New Zealand could go either way, I’ve seen two Carlton games this year and one Saints game and they’ve both been woeful. GWS vs GC is an each way bet too, GWS has shown some form this year and the Coasters were good against a declining Geelong last week. The Hawks and the Power looks like a close game too, but I’ll lean to the Hawks because Port only just fell in over the line against an undermanned Roos last round. I’ve tipped against the majority of the systems for the Saints / Blues game (for no real reason other than the Saints appear more rubbish than the Blues) and I’ve gone against the Lions at home because of the Eagles forward line power.

Well, all the favourites got up this week. It’s interesting that none of the systems picked Port Adelaide. The main reason for this is the moving average that each system uses to evaluate relative team strength. Port lost their first two games badly and were sitting low on the ladder, which offset their high position in the last few rounds of 2014. This, coupled with the game being played in Victoria means no system selected them. I personally picked them because Port’s two first games were against tough teams (Swans and the Dockers) and North Melbourne were beaten handily by Adelaide in Round 1 and were flat track bullies last week against the hapless Lions.

Results Round 3

Current Leaderboard (Round 3)

An interesting round this week. At first glance there’s only one game that could go either way, North vs Port. However, closer examination suggests that Brisbane at home to Richmond should give an edge to the Lions, but they’ve had a diabolical run with injuries. Couple that with Richmond being truly awful last week and it’s a struggle to pick a winner. The four automated tipping systems suggest that the Collingwood vs St Kilda game is going to be close, but despite that all four selected the Magpies.

Here’s the AFL tips for round 2 of the 2015 season! The two deadband systems have chosen Sydney over Port Adelaide so (I guess) that suggests that match is likely to be a close one with homeground advantage giving the slight edge to Port. Last year Port were unlucky to lose to Sydney at the SCG early in the season but Sydney beat Port quite easily at Adelaide Oval late in the year during the Power’s losing streak. An interesting statistic is that Port has actually lost 9 of their last 15 matches. Despite this I still picked the Power to win in front of 50,000 screaming fans!

Results Round 1

Current Leaderboard (Round 1)

I’ve been tinkering with the idea of creating a spreadsheet to systemise match tips for Australian rules football for a while now. This is because of anecdotal evidence that a reasonable systemised method of selecting winners is likely to out perform most football tippers because it removes any psychological bias.

So, in my spare time in the last month I’ve done a little statistical analysis of the past four years of match results and arrived at a few factors that seem to have the strongest correlation on who does (and doesn’t) win each match. As you imagine, these include who is the home team, relative ladder positions, and so on. I’ve come up with four slightly different systems to tip each week, with various parameters tuned to fit actual match results over the last four years.

Systems 1 and 3

Systems one and three use the same straight comparison of weighted relative ladder position and match type (home, away, interstate, neutral). System 1 includes a bias for some teams, predicting that certain teams will rise up the ladder in 2015, and certain teams will drop. System 3 does not.

Systems 2 and 4

Systems two and four use the same comparison used by the first two systems but apply a dead band selection. Basically this means if the comparison is sufficiently small then these systems select the team that has the highest weighted relative ladder position. Additionally system 2 uses the same bias for some teams that system 1 uses.

Tips for Round 1

Here’s the tips for round 1 (along with my own tips). Each week I’ll update the tips and compare the performance of each system.